Brexit threat to Cumbria's farmers

There are warnings that one of the backbones of South Lakeland’s economy could face a crippling blow if Brexit negotiations do not secure a favourable deal for the industry.

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New statistics suggest the vast majority of sheep farms could be gone for good within a few years following changes brought about by Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Leading industry figures have warned of the importance of a clear deal that does not result in tariffs on lamb exports from the UK.

Delivering a talk at the University of Cumbria, Newcastle University’s Professor Mark Shucksmith said World Trade Organisation rules, if no Brexit deal was achieved, could include a tariff of more than 30 per cent on sheep exports to the EU.

Currently, 95 per cent of sheep exports from the UK are to the EU.

Coupled with uncertainties over farm subsidies, these financial blows mean that farmers were left completely in the dark over whether they would make enough money to stay in business.

Professor Shucksmith said in his talk that it was expected the impact of such tariffs on such a large portion of exports would lead to the closure of ‘most sheep farms’.

Lois Mansfield, principal lecturer in outdoor studies at the University of Cumbria’s Ambleside campus, said: “Some farmers are optimistic because of Brexit but I am fearful of what the impact on them will be. There are statistics from reports which suggest that if we get World Trade Organisation rules, sheep farmers will lose 95 per cent of their export income, which could see many go out of business.”

William Case, who farms Texel sheep near Ulverston, highlighted the threat posed by the potential WTO rules on businesses like his that export mutton or lamb to the EU.

“It’s a huge worry,” he said. “The potential impact of tariffs would be a big one, if it does come to that. It would be difficult for us to carry on as we would take a big hit on the lambs.

“We have to play it by ear and see how it goes, but there is a lot of uncertainty. If we were to get 12 months of tariffs we would tighten our belt and try to weather the storm. But if it is going to be tariffs and quotas forever then we would have to question what we are doing and whether we can continue.”

Veronica Waller, a project manager at Cumbria’s Farmer Network, echoed the belief that the outlook for farmers after Brexit was threatening.

“A large volume of sheep meat, particularly from upland farms - of which there are a lot here in Cumbria - gets exported as ‘light lamb’ to Mediterranean countries like Spain, Greece and Italy,” she said.

“These are slightly smaller lambs that are exported rather than fattened up for the domestic market.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen with Brexit and how it will effect market conditions, but if we do crash out with no deal, the WTO rules will automatically come into place and there will be tariffs."

Adam Day, managing director at The Farmer Network in Cumbria, said: “We can’t get away from the fact that issues farmers face post Brexit are very important. Lots of businesses are on hold because they don’t know where they will be in a few years.

“We desperately need some clarity about what is going to happen.”

Andrew Herbert, Lead Strategy Adviser in Natural Environment and Land Management for the Lake District National Park, said the national park as a whole could suffer as a result of farming businesses closing down.

“There is a worry about what the overall multiplier effect on the park would be,” he said. “The NFU has come up with a figure that says for every £1 of public money invested into farming through payments, £7.40 is reinvested into the wider economy."

Mr Day also highlighted the wider impact if farmers were unable to continue in their business.

“Overall the key message is this: We have a growing population in this country. It will grow from 65 million to 85 million and those people will need feeding."

Chairman of the National Sheep Association and sheep farmer Phil Stocker said: “We are putting pressure on the government and DEFRA to make sure that the deal is a tariff free one. We also need to look into new markets and develop the domestic one, looking at how we can add value to our product.”

This week DEFRA Secretary Michael Gove said farmers would get only get subsidies - on which many farmers rely - if they agreed to protect the environment and enhance rural life, as part of his plan for a ‘green Brexit’.

Under the EU’s current Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), farmers are paid based on the basis of the amount of land they own.

Mr Gove said this could often result in large subsidies being paid to wealthy landowners who did not need them.