A CARLISLE-based academic says the lockdown is working and we could start to see a fall in the rate of increase in coronavirus cases in Cumbria within the next 10 days.

Dr John Campbell, who has been critical of the how late the decision to place the UK into lockdown was made, said: "It will start to fall from a 10 per cent increase to a nine per cent increase and so on," he explained.

“Hopefully that would level off and new cases will start to fall and we will start to see the measures working through the incubation period.

“It will carry on getting worse for the next two weeks because of people already infected, then new cases start to decline as you start to get the benefit of the lockdown."

The worst period is just round the corner, according to the academic, who has more than half a million subscribers on YouTube.

“It’s probably going to come in two weeks’ time (the peak) and if we have had doubling of cases every five or six days we can expect the current number of cases to increase by another two or three times," Dr Campbell said.

"Hopefully there will only be one more doubling. Once in lockdown for a week we would hope to start seeing a reduction in the rate of increases.

“I would expect the lockdown measures to further reduce future transmission, with the rate this week much less than last week.

“The incubation period of the virus is six to seven days, so we can expect to see a continued increase from the social interactions last week – before the lockdown.

“Given that people die of this two, three or four weeks after the onset of symptoms, we expect the number of deaths to increase in the next few weeks."

Dr Campbell is hopeful the peak of the virus in the UK will be less severe than what has been seen in Italy.

“While the shutdown came later than I would have liked, I am hoping it will flatten the curve.

“I hope the lockdown has come early enough to prevent that, yes. Without the lockdown we would have seen that, I believe. I’m hoping the lockdown is in time and people are fully compliant to prevent that nightmare scenario.

“The lockdown will be reviewed after three weeks and I expect it will be renewed for a further period of time, unless it is replaced by large-scale testing.

“It would not be a ludicrous suggestion that we will have another two to three weeks after the current three-week lockdown.

“Testing would mean the lockdown and isolation becomes specific to those who have the virus. That means you can target the lockdown so it’s not for everyone.

“But social distancing will need to be maintained for the rest of the year. We won’t be shaking hands in 2020."

The effects of the lockdown will come in three stages, according to the retired nurse teacher and A&E nurse.

“The first thing we will notice is the rate of increases decline, then there will be no increases at all, then cases start to decrease," he said.