DEATHS from coronavirus in Cumbria are likely to be a third higher than the national average, according to estimates from modelling.

Colin Cox, the Cumbria’s director of public health, said the county would see an inflated number of deaths because of the region’s elderly population.

He made the comments as figures released by the Office of National Statistics suggested South Lakeland had the highest number of coronavirus deaths of any local authority in the county, higher than Carlisle and nearly double the death toll in Barrow.

There have been 52 deaths in South Lakeland, compared to 32 in Barrow. Figures from Public Health England showed Cumbria had the fourth highest number of cases outside London. The county previously topped the rest of England on this measure.

Mr Cox said: “The rate of positive COVID-19 deaths in Cumbria appears high compared to the national average. However these figures need to be treated with caution.

“The average age of the population in Cumbria is older than most other parts of the country, particularly in the South Lakeland district, and therefore we would expect to see more positive cases, and deaths, due to COVID-19 affecting elderly people more significantly than other age groups.

“Local modelling estimates that Cumbria can expect a death rate around a third higher than the national average due to the age structure of the county.”

The director also said Cumbria was ‘ahead of the curve’ in confirming its first cases of coronavirus compared to other regions.