New Lake District snow forecast as Cumbria could hit -5C

The latest forecast data on WXCharts, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, shows the possibility of snow in the Lake District in the early hours of next Thursday (November 19).

Around 0.3cm of snowfall is currently predicted at midnight, with the model showing around 0.2cm of snow potentially lying on the ground.

No snowfall is currently predicted by the same model for Carlisle, Penrith, Whitehaven, Workington or Barrow-in-Furness.

The latest modelling represents a change from earlier forecasts, which had suggested snow could fall in the Lake District on Friday (November 13).

Temperatures are, however, still predicted to fall sharply across Cumbria in the coming days.

WXCharts currently suggests lows of around -5.2C in Carlisle at 9am on November 13, -4.9C in Penrith and -4.8C in the Lake District at the same time.

Workington could fall to around -5C, while temperatures of -4.8C are predicted in Whitehaven and -4.6C in Barrow-in-Furness at 9am.

The Met Office is also forecasting colder conditions, although its predictions are less severe than those shown by WXCharts.

Its latest longer-range UK outlook says high pressure is expected to initially bring widely settled conditions, with overnight frost possible between Saturday (November 14) and November 23.

Colder conditions are possible at times, particularly towards the beginning of this period, although temperatures are expected to often be near or slightly above average as more unsettled Atlantic conditions begin to arrive.

For the Lake District, the Met Office says there is high confidence in a change to colder conditions over the coming days before temperatures become milder again over the weekend.

The Met Office has also highlighted the possibility of a severe chill effect on the fells, where wind could make conditions feel significantly colder, potentially enhanced by rain or wet snow.

The colder outlook comes after Keswick Mountain Rescue Team warned that volunteers were being "stretched further than ever" following their busiest month on record.

The team recorded 30 rescues during August and said some callouts could have been prevented with additional planning, reliable backup navigation and the correct equipment for changing conditions.

Earlier this month, the team spent more than three hours helping a walker who became stranded after dark above Lining Crag without an adequate torch.

The Lake District National Park Authority advises visitors to check the latest forecast before setting out, plan and carry suitable equipment, warning that weather conditions in the Lake District can change considerably within a single day.

Forecasts this far in advance remain subject to change, with precise local details becoming increasingly difficult to predict further ahead.